CELSI research fellow Sofia Trommlerová published in prestigious journal of American Economic Association an article about The Impact of COVID-19 on Fertility in Spain, which has been struggling with a steadily declining birth rate since 2009 and it also has one of the lowest birth rates in Europe.

With her colleague Libertad González, they found that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which affected Spain heavily, was followed by an increase in the number of births by 5% in the following year.

"This is, after 12 years of continuously declining fertility, finally good news for the sustainability of the pension system in Spain," remarked Trommlerová.

Abstract:

We study the effect of the first wave of COVID-19 and the accompanying containment measures on fertility in Spain. We use earlier years to predict births in the absence of the pandemic and then compare our prediction to actual births. We document a large fall in births in December 2020 and January 2021 and a complete catch-up during the rest of 2021. The fall in fertility was moderate among native women, with a substantial rebound and a positive net effect of 5% by the end of 2021, while the decline in births among foreign women started early and was persistent.

Read the paper here: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Fpandp.20241123